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Cattle on Feed Preview                 10/19 16:06

By John A. Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst

                        USDA Actual  Average Guess      Range
Cattle on Feed:
On Feed October 1          xxxxx      104.5%        103.5-106.0%
Placed in September        xxxxx      107.5%        103.5-116.0%
Marketed in September      xxxxx      102.5%        101.0-103.0%

Barring a major surprise when the veil drops on the Oct. 1 
Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon at 2 CDT, USDA is 
expected to extend the aggressive placement pattern of 2017. In 
other words, September placement activity should be confirmed as 
the 10th month of the last 11 with a total larger than the prior 
year. Having said that, it's worth noting the feedlot in-
movement during September 2016 was record small. If September 
placement comes in as expected, it will equate to 104% of the 
five-year average.

The average marketing guess may look somewhat small given the 
larger placement of last spring and early summer. Yet last month 
did contain one fewer business day than 2016. Accordingly, the 
average guess translates into a respectably daily marketing rate 
of up 7-8%.

Keep in mind that the premiums currently built into deferred 
live futures could make the board especially vulnerable if the 
report turns out to be quite bearish (i.e., actual placement 
much larger than the average guess).

For more Harrington comments, check out 

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