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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/23 10:42

   Grain Futures Heading Lower Midday Friday

   Corn is 13 to 14 cents lower, soybeans are 7 to 10 cents lower and wheat is 
flat to 9 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 250 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 0.15 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed 
with crude down $0.20. Livestock trade is flat. Precious metals are weaker with 
gold off $5.50.


   Corn trade is 13 to 14 cent lower at midday Friday with trade fading back to 
the lower end of the recent range with little fresh news to induce buyers into 
the weekend. Ethanol margins should stabilize with the corn pullback and energy 
rebound from the beginning of the week. Brazil will continue to evaluate the 
second crop as estimates drift lower, while the U.S. pushes deeper into 
pollination with a warmer and drier days ahead and potential relief the second 
week. Corn basis has remained flat with cash inverses likely to see more 
pressure as wheat and southern sorghum start to become available to feed. On 
the September contract, trade slipped back below the 20-day at $5.60 with 
further support at the lower Bollinger Band at $5.20.


   Soybeans are 7 to 10 cents lower at midday with trade working more sideways 
after the volatile day Thursday with some improvement in the extended forecast 
and meal still struggling to sustain a rally. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 lower and 
oil is 0.30 cent to 0.40 cent higher. The weather pattern is warmer and drier 
short term, with rains towards the end of the second week for much of the belt. 
South America will continue to ship soybeans while the run in canola values 
turn more sideways. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in recent days. 
Mexico secured 100,000 metric tons of new crop on the daily wire. On the 
September soybean chart, support the 20-day at $13.64, which we are just below 
at midday, with the lower Bollinger Band at $12.85.


   Wheat trade is 1 to 10 cents lower at midday with spring wheat giving up 
early gains to turn lower again with KC gaining in spread action. Harvest will 
continue to expand across Europe and the Black Sea with mixed results so far 
while the dollar will provide headwinds at the upper end of the range with 
action consolidating around 93 points on the index. KC holds at 35-cent 
discount to Chicago narrowing Friday with Minneapolis at a 206-cent premium 
gaining 40 cents from the lows Thursday. KC September on the chart has support 
at the 20-day at $6.28 with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $6.81.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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